Will over 1 million temporary residents leave Canada when their status expires in 2025?
Maria Alfaro has built a life in Canada with two hard-earned postgraduation diplomas in human resources and organizational management.
Since arriving here more than five years ago, the former international student from El Salvador has made new friends, joined a church and worked as an administrative assistant at a Toronto law firm.
Lately she is feeling deflated as the window of her Canadian dream is closing and her days in the country are numbered.
In July, she quit her job when her three-year postgraduation work permit expired. Recently, she sold her desk, flat-screen TV and kitchen utensils to move in with a friend who offered her shelter.
“I put my heart and soul into this project,” said the 39-year-old, who was a trained lawyer in El Salvador and is now in Canada on a visitor permit that expires in March. “I invested energy, time and money. I did the process the right way but it didn’t work out.”
As part of its three-year immigration level plan to slow population growth amid a housing and affordability crisis, the federal government is aiming to reduce the annual quota for permanent residents to 395,000 from 485,000 and the temporary resident population to 2.52 million in 2025, from 2.96 million.
While the plan is expected to result in a population decline of 0.2 per cent in Canada next year, it’s predicated on the assumption that 1,262,801 temporary residents like Alfaro would leave the country voluntarily when their status expires next year.
“To expect the majority of them to leave wilfully is not feasible,” said Mississauga immigration consultant Kanwar Sierah. “That level of a mass exodus has never happened.”
In the past year, Ottawa has changed the rules to restrict access to and extension of work permits, leaving international students and foreign workers — the largest classes of temporary residents — with few options.
While some have resorted to seeking asylum to extend their stay in Canada, others whose families have invested all they have into this journey may move underground out of desperation because they have little to go back to.
The Immigration Department said temporary residents are expected to comply with the terms of their visitor, work or study permit, and must leave Canada at the end of their authorized stay.
“A decision to remove someone from Canada is not taken lightly,” it said in a statement to the Star. “Every individual facing removal is entitled to due process, but once all avenues to appeal are exhausted, they are subject to removal from Canada.”
Toronto immigration lawyer Max Berger said the majority of his clients seeking asylum these days have been in Canada for quite some time before making a claim.
“I am not suggesting that the refugee claims are not genuine just because someone has been here as a student for a few years,” he said. “Some are not genuine claims because they’re made by people who have just run into a brick wall and they don’t want to go back to their country.”
According to government data, 84,645 of the 132,525 claims received between January and September were made by foreign nationals inside Canada after admission, while the rest sought asylum at ports of entry upon arrival. Out of all in-land claims, 15,160 came under a study permit — up from 13,080 from the entire 2023 — topped by India (2,290), Nigeria (1,990), Ghana (1,385) and the Republic of Guinea (1,095).
The refugee board has 250,000 pending claims in the system.
Calgary-based immigration lawyer Raj Sharma said that volume of claims is unsustainable. He said officials must change the law to issue removal orders automatically against migrants as soon as their permits expire to preclude them from seeking asylum within Canada.
Recently, Sharma has noticed increased enforcement by border agents and Services Canada in Alberta to pursue foreign workers for breach-of-work authorizations.
“I was contacted with respect to certain raids,” he said. “What’s the outcome after there’s a raid? You’ve been working without authorization. Here is your removal order. No more refugee claims. And now we take your passport.”
But the problem is until a removal order is issued, the person is eligible to make a refugee claim. In the United States, Berger said, a claim has to be filed within a year after arriving in the country.
“I’m loath to say that we should put a cap on how much time you can be here before you make a refugee claim,” he said. “The reason I say that is because there’s a lot of students who do have a legitimate fear of persecution back home, but they chose to pursue their education” as an alternative to asylum.
Authorities could look up all permit holders and track if they have left the country when their time is up, and then look for them if they haven’t, but Berger said that’s an incredibly expensive exercise when officials already have their hands full with tracking down failed refugee claimants.
“If they stumble upon you, then they will call you in and issue the removal order,” he said. “But they don’t really keep track of let’s say, someone who is here as a visitor and six months has expired and the person is still in the country.”
Since January 2023, the Canada Border Services Agency said it has increased the number of inland enforcement officers by 15 per cent and aligned its resources to enforce removal orders. Overall removals of inadmissible foreign nationals are expected to rise by 60 per cent this fiscal year compared to 2021-22.
Although priority is given to cases involving national security, organized crime, crimes against humanity and other criminals, the border agency issued 3,912 new removal orders last year for non-compliance such as working and studying without authorization and against people who overstayed their visits. Some 3,650 removal orders have been issued this year.
Of the 103,131 people who have been physically removed since 2022, more than 93,000 were cited for breaking these rules, and about a quarter of them involved non-refugee claimants. Currently 38,030 immigration arrest warrants remain active.
“Canadians can be confident that the CBSA will take appropriate enforcement action against foreign nationals who fail to comply with the immigration legislation,” the agency told the Star.
Rather than bringing in newcomers from overseas, the government’s immigration plan also aims to allot 40 per cent of the 395,000 permanent resident spots in 2025 for international students or work permit holders who are in Canada.
Despite the intent to grant permanent status to more temporary residents, the number of spots is “a drop in the bucket” in light of the mass of migrants currently in immigration limbo, said Sierah. The fierce competition for the limited spots has already pushed up the qualifying threshold for permanent residence under the economic immigration class.
Ottawa has reached agreements with Alberta, Manitoba and Yukon to extend work permits of in-Canada migrants that the provinces already selected and who are in the process of obtaining permanent residence to save them from running out of status. But capacity is limited.
Syed Hussan of Migrant Rights Network said he has been hearing from many people that they would leave Canada when their work permits expire next year despite the sad reality of being uprooted.
“People will make the choice between whether living here in daily fear and working in some of the worst (cash) jobs you can possibly find, and if facing constant exploitation, harassment and abuse is better than returning somewhere,” he said. “People who are younger and have more economic resources won’t stay.”
His coalition has campaigned for a broad regularization plan to grant permanent status to undocumented residents, but Immigration Minister Marc Miller has already sounded the death knell of a mass program, citing a lack of public consensus.
Alfaro has not given up yet. She has looked into pursuing another program in university, though it’s too costly, and has been unsuccessfully searching for an employer to sponsor her for a new work permit to remain here.
“We are not responsible for the poor policy management of the government,” said Alfaro, who has been taking French lessons since early last year to boost her chances for permanent residence. “I feel upset and somehow that I’m a failure. I know it’s not really my fault, but I have that sentiment.”
This article was first reported by The Star
