Major reduction in immigration targets will cut population, lower demand for more homes, Ottawa says

Prime Minister Justin Trudeau said Thursday that a major reduction in the number of permanent residents would pause population growth over the next two years, admitting that the government had not got the balance between addressing labour needs and maintaining population growth “quite right.”

 

At a press conference in Parliament on Thursday, Mr. Trudeau and Immigration Minister Marc Miller unveiled plans to reduce permanent resident numbers from 500,000 to 395,000 in 2025 and from 500,000 to 380,000 in 2026. They set a target of 365,000 permanent residents in 2027.

 

The reduction marks a policy U-turn for the government, and is the first time that Ottawa has shrunk targets for permanent residents. It froze immigration levels last year in an attempt to tackle rising numbers.

 

The government also released a plan to address the rise in the number of temporary residents, including international students and people here on work permits, publishing annual targets for the first time.

 

But it stopped short of setting targets for the number of asylum seekers it would allow to come to Canada, or for seasonal workers, such as those on farms.

Mr. Trudeau said after the pandemic, the government “didn’t get the balance quite right” between addressing labour needs and maintaining population growth. He said the changes, including reducing the number of immigrants over the next three years, are aimed at “making our immigration system work better.”

 

“Immigration is essential for Canada’s future, but it must be controlled, and it must be sustainable,” he said.

 

The Prime Minister hit out at businesses he said had abused the immigration system by bringing in and exploiting foreign workers while refusing to hire Canadians “for a fair wage.”

 

“Businesses should no longer rely on cheap foreign labour,” he said.

 

Some business leaders expressed dismay at the drop in immigration levels.

 

Diana Palmerin-Velasco, senior director, future of work, at the Canadian Chamber of Commerce, said in a statement that the lower immigration levels are “disappointing for businesses across the country that, in recent months, have had to deal with abrupt and constant changes to immigration policy.”

“Significantly decreasing our labour pool will impact thousands of these employers across Canada struggling to find the workforce they need to operate and grow,” she said.

 

Dan Kelly, president of the Canadian Federation of Independent Business, said “the rush to make massive changes to Canada’s permanent immigration levels and the Temporary Foreign Worker Program have many small business owners’ heads spinning.”

 

“CFIB is already receiving panicked calls from small business owners, including many who are heartbroken to have to say goodbye to their foreign workers who are already in Canada and whose visas are soon to expire,” he said.

 

Mr. Miller says there is a need to “focus on people that are already here” and expects temporary residents to fill more than 40 per cent of permanent residency spots.

 

The government aims to reduce the number of temporary residents to 5 per cent of the population by the end of 2026. It plans to admit 673,650 next year, dropping to 516,600 in 2026 and 543,600 in 2027.

 

It calculated that, with the changes, Canada’s temporary resident population will decline by 445,901 in 2025 and 445,662 in 2026. There would be an increase of 17,439 in 2027.

 

The government is creating a new category for temporary residents transitioning to permanent residency. But it forecast that just over 1.2 million temporary residents are expected to leave Canada next year.

 

It said it aims to admit 305,900 international students next year, a drop of 10 per cent from 2024. The number of new temporary workers coming here would drop by 16 per cent to 367,750.

 

Mr. Miller acknowledged that high immigration levels have put pressure on housing. He said that since announcing a reduction in study permits for international students just under a year ago, there had been a drop in rents in Vancouver, Surrey and Toronto.

Ottawa forecasts that 670,000 fewer homes will need to be built by the end of 2027 as a result of the drop in numbers announced Thursday. It also projected that the new targets will result in a population decline of 0.2 per cent in the next two years, returning to population growth of 0.8 per cent in 2027.

 

Mr. Miller said the government had consulted widely and heard that, while Canadians support the country remaining open to immigrants, they have “legitimate questions about the volume.”

He cautioned against blaming immigrants, but said “it is also undeniable the volume of migration has contributed to affordability.”

 

Mr. Miller also confirmed he was not proceeding with a program to allow migrants without valid papers, including people whose visas have expired, to apply to become permanent residents. He has previously estimated that they could number up to 600,000 people. Instead he is pursuing a scaled-down program, such as for health care and construction workers.

 

Syed Hussan, spokesperson for the Migrant Workers Alliance for Change, accused the government of “a disgraceful assault on migrant rights in Canada as this government continues to scapegoat migrants for the housing and affordability crisis.”

 

Speaking to reporters in Toronto, Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre accused Mr. Trudeau of demolishing a “controlled, common-sense immigration system that had worked for a century and a half.”

 

“We will have a mathematical formula that ensures that we never grow our population at a faster rate than we grow the availability of jobs, homes and health care,” he said if he forms the next government.

 

 

 

This article was first reported by The Globe and  Mail