Canadian population could exceed 59 million people by 2074: StatCan projects

Canada’s population could grow to more than 59 million people by 2074, a Statistics Canada report released Tuesday projects.

 

The agency shared updated population projections for the period between 2024 and 2074, taking into account factors such as the COVID-19 pandemic, record-low fertility levels, and recent reductions to Canadian immigration levels.

 

The projections also consider mortality and international and interprovincial migration, but the report notes the projections aren’t to be taken as “predictions,” which is why several scenarios are covered in the report. The projections are intended to help people plan and make decisions for the future based on current trends.

In 2024, Canada’s population was estimated to be around 40.3 million, and Statistics Canada projects that number could grow to just 45.2 million in the next 50 years on the low-end, or 80.8 million on the high-end.

Canada’s demographics have experienced significant changes in recent years. In 2023, Canada had the highest population growth in a single year since the late 1950s. Here’s a look at how Statistics Canada projects things could continue to shift in the future.

Fewer immigrants means lower population growth

The population could reach 59.3 million people by 2074, based on Statistics Canada’s medium-growth scenario, which is 3.6 million people less than the agency projected the population would reach by 2073 in a report last summer.

 

A reduction in the number of permanent residents and non-permanent residents admitted in the country as a result of new immigration regulations and the plan introduced by Immigration, Refugees and Citizenship Canada in November “would result in much lower population growth than that observed recently in 2022 and 2023” in the short term, the report said.

 

In both the low and medium-growth scenarios, the population is projected to decrease slightly between 2025 and 2026.

 

Despite new limits on immigration, in all scenarios, “migratory increase would be the key driver of population growth in Canada,” the report said, noting that’s been a trend since the early 1990s.

 

Canada’s population to continue aging

Again, in all projected scenarios, the population is expected to continue aging. The number of adults aged 65 and older will continue to increase for the country as a whole, as well as in every province and territory, Statistics Canada projected.

 

In the medium-growth scenario, the population aged 85 and older would more than double from 2031 to 2051, from 1.2 million to 2.8 million people.

This would be “as a result of the baby-boom generation (born between 1946 and 1965) reaching this oldest age group,” the report said.

Provincial and territorial projections

In Alberta, Statistics Canada’s projections show an increase in the province’s share of the country’s population — known as demographic weight — in all scenarios from 2024 to 2049. For Newfoundland and Labrador, Quebec and Yukon, projections show a reduction in demographic weight.

 

In the other provinces and territories, the results vary based on the scenario, usually depending on interprovincial migration, the report found.

 

For example, it said if recent trends continue, the Atlantic provinces, excluding Newfoundland and Labrador, could see an increase in demographic weight during the same time period.

 

 

 

 

 

This article was first reported by Reuters