Canada’s demographic shock worsening: National Banking economist

The federal government is trying to restrict migration to Canada, citing the challenge in absorbing so many newcomers over a short period. But so far in 2024, population growth seems to be picking up steam.

 

Over the first four months of the year, the population aged 15 and older rose by roughly 411,000 – up nearly 50 per cent from the four-month increase to start 2023, according to Statistics Canada’s Labour Force Survey.

 

This latest acceleration was the subject of a recent research note from Stéfane Marion, chief economist at National Bank of Canada. “The demographic shock is getting worse in Canada,” he wrote.

Canada is experiencing its fastest population growth in decades, and this surge is fuelled almost entirely by international migration, including the arrival of temporary workers and students. The population grew by nearly 1.3 million last year, or 3.2 per cent, the quickest pace since the late 1950s.

 

Statscan’s labour survey is completed by tens of thousands of households every month. While the agency includes population figures as part of the monthly jobs report, these are not official estimates. Statscan produces a separate population report that is published on a quarterly basis, and the next edition is out June 19.

Even so, these numbers suggest Canada’s growth has remained robust to start the year, a potential complication for the federal government as it tries to restrain migration.

 

In a first, Ottawa will set limits on temporary residents, starting this fall. The government is trying to lower this group to 5 per cent of the total population over the next three years; at last count, they made up 6.5 per cent.

 

Given those plans, “it would seem that many people have decided to come to Canada earlier,” Mr. Marion said, noting that housing affordability could worsen over the short term.

 

Several economists have said population growth could eventually slow to around 1 per cent as these new rules come into effect.

 

 

 

This article was first reported by The Globe and Mail